TAO Market Price
$311.64TAO / USDT
+2% in 24 hoursCycle top
TAO Market Cycle Indicators
A transparent collection of price, emission, network and sentiment signals designed to assess Bittensor cycle conditions. Proxy metrics are labeled; Bitcoin-only measures are never fabricated.
TAO Pi Cycle Top Status
111DMA$218.11
Didn't cross
350DMA ×2$516.01
Market Cycle Top Signals
71%Hit: 6/16 · 18 unavailable
HoldCycle top
Single score
TAO Cycle Score
66/ 100Elevated
Each live indicator is scaled 0–100 against its own cycle-top trigger, then averaged using the weights below (unavailable signals carry no weight, so the remaining 15 are rescaled to 100%). At 66/100 the market reads as elevated: TAO MACD Histogram and TAO AHR999 Analogue push the score highest, while 2-Year MA Multiplier at 0/100 pulls it down.
Bands: 0–34 accumulation · 35–64 neutral · 65–84 elevated · 85+ euphoria.
Weights & contributions15 live signals
Valuation
- TAO Mayer Multiple10%
- TAO AHR999 Analogue8%
- TAO Rainbow Position8%
- 2-Year MA Multiplier8%
- TAO AHR999x Exit6%
- TAO Golden Ratio Multiplier6%
- TAO Log-Regression Position4%
Momentum
- TAO MACD Histogram9%
- TAO RSI — 22 Day7%
- 3-Month Annualized Return5%
- TAO RSI — 14 Day4%
- TAO Volume Surge3%
- TAO Volume Trend2%
Trend
- TAO Pi Cycle Top12%
- TAO Trend Indicator8%
Strategy
Signal stance & trade plan
Hold1% conviction
The weighted read of the composite score, RSI, MACD and volume currently favours hold at $311.64. Conviction reflects how strongly the four inputs agree; a low number means they disagree and position sizing should stay small.
Educational signal summary from live TAO data, not investment advice.
Signal breakdown
- Composite cycle score45%Trim66/100 · Elevated
Low scores mark accumulation conditions; high scores mark late-cycle risk.
- RSI (14-day)20%Sell67.0
Below 35 is oversold, above 70 is overbought on daily closes.
- MACD histogram20%Buy+2.38% of price
A positive and expanding histogram confirms trend continuation.
- Volume confirmation15%BuyVolume Surge 2.35× · Volume Trend 2.05×
Rising participation confirms a move; thin volume warns that a push is unsupported.
Live trade plan
- Bias
- Neutral — wait for agreement
- Accumulation zone
- $230.35 – $261.87
- Around the 200-day moving average
- Trim zone
- $484.94 – $581.93
- Mayer Multiple 2.0–2.4× territory
- Invalidation
- Below $213.37
- Weekly close under the 200DMA band
- Trend checkpoint
- $218.11
- 111-day moving average
- Review cadence
- Every 6 hours
- Matches the live data refresh
Current cycle phase
Topping
Composite risk is 66/100 with 95/100 momentum; elevated signals indicate a potential distribution phase.
On-chain valuation contextN/A
MVRV Z-Score
N/A
Realized Price
N/A
No authoritative provider currently publishes TAO realized capitalization, so a real Realized Price or MVRV Z-Score cannot be calculated. Proxy values are intentionally excluded.
Market size
Market cap & volume
Volume is Binance TAO/USDT quote volume; market cap from CoinGecko. The 7-day market-cap change tracks price only.
Market capitalisationCirculating TAO × price
- Value
- $3.55B
- Change
- 24h +2.5%
- 7d +43%
Trading volumeBinance TAO/USDT quote volume
- Last 24h
- $8.7M
- Change
- 24h +1.48%
- 7d +68.32%
Network
On-chain metrics
Value locked is DefiLlama's Bittensor chain aggregate; supply figures come from CoinGecko.
Value lockedDefiLlama Bittensor chain aggregate
- Bittensor
- $617.6M
- Bittensor EVM
- $32.3K
Supply54% of the 21M cap issued
- Circulating
- 11,339,646 TAO
- Maximum
- 21,000,000 TAO
Active addressesNo open Bittensor endpoint publishes daily active addresses; an explorer API key would be required, so no estimate is shown.
- Daily active
- N/A
- Status
- Unavailable
Market attention
Search & app rankings
Bittensor · Google TrendsLatest weekly interest · trailing 90 days
- Crypto
- 0/100
- All
- 62/100
Coinbase · Apple App StoreUS · Free iPhone apps
- Finance
- >100
- Overall
- >100
TAO / USDT
Live TAO price history
The same Binance daily closes drive the timeline, moving averages, and cycle signals.
$311.64
+1.0% in range
Cycle phase timeline
Every live indicator rescored day by day, grouped into valuation, momentum and trend. Today reads 66/100 — elevated.
Dashed lines mark the accumulation, elevated and euphoria boundaries
No Pi Cycle, Golden Ratio, or Mayer Multiple top trigger has fired in this range.
Forward model
ScenarioTAO cycle outlook
Composite score, phase, and top-signal strength projected from the current live trajectory.
Next top-risk windowModerate
2026-12-29 — 2027-01-26First projected week where composite risk reaches 85 or a plotted top signal reaches 100.
Next bottoming windowLow
Not projected in 180 daysNo bottoming threshold is reached within the 180-day model horizon.
Next phase changeLow
Not projected in 180 daysThe model remains Topping throughout the 180-day horizon.
180-day horizon · weekly pointsScenario projection, not a price forecast. It extends the trailing 90-day slopes of the weighted score and its groups, caps daily moves, and applies exponential decay. Windows span ±14 days and update with the six-hour live snapshot.
Lovable AI
AI Cycle Briefing
Ask about the current dashboard or paste your own market snapshot. The answer is grounded in the latest live TAO indicators.
Live inputs are attached automatically · not investment advice
TAO Rainbow Price Chart
Log scaleLog-regression valuation bands
Lower · value$104
Fair value$231
Upper · overheated$611
TAO Emission Multiple
Emission multiple and TAO price
TAO Pi Cycle Top Indicator
111-day SMA crossing above 2× the 350-day DMA · historical crossovers mark potential cycle tops
TAO price111SMA2×350DMATop crossover
No Pi Cycle top crossover appears in TAO’s available trading history.
TAO Golden Ratio Multiplier
200DMA × 1.618 / 2.618 / 4.236 / 6.854 resistance bands
Philip Swift's framework: Fibonacci multiples of the 200-day average act as dynamic overhead resistance, with each cycle's peak typically reaching a lower multiple than the last. TAO's listed history covers one partial cycle, so the upper bands are untested here.
TAO Mayer Multiple
Price ÷ 200DMA · now 1.28×
Trace Mayer's ratio of spot price to the 200-day average. Readings above 2.4 have historically marked overheated conditions, and 1.0 marks the long-term mean. Peak values decline as an asset matures, so treat fixed thresholds as a guide rather than a trigger.
TAO 100-Week MA Heatmap
Long-term weekly average with its 30-day growth rate
The classic version uses a 200-week average; TAO's listed daily history covers about 71 weeks, so a shortened 100-week average is used and labelled as such. Bars show how fast that long-term average is rising each month — red bars mark the steep slope expansion that has accompanied late-cycle extension.
TAO Market Cycle Top Indicators
30 adapted signals · click any row to inspect its formula
| # | Indicator | Current | 24h | Signal strength | Top trigger | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TAO AHR999 Analogue | 1.76 | 4.86% | ≥ 1.20 | Hot | |
| 2 | TAO Pi Cycle Top | $218.11 | 0.35% | 111DMA ≥ 350DMA ×2 | Hold | |
| 3 | TAO Emission Multiple | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 4 | TAO Rainbow Position | 4 | 0% | ≥ 7 | Hold | |
| 5 | Institutional Net Outflows | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 6 | Institutional-to-TAO Ratio | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 7 | 2-Year MA Multiplier | N/A | — | ≥ 5.00× | Hold | |
| 8 | TAO MVRV Z-Score | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 9 | TAO Bubble Index | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 10 | Stablecoin Yield Pressure | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 11 | TAO RSI — 22 Day | 67.9 | 3.76% | ≥ 80 | Watch | |
| 12 | Altcoin Season Index | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 13 | TAO AI-Sector Dominance | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 14 | Long-Term Staked Supply | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 15 | Short-Term Liquid Supply | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 16 | TAO Dormancy Risk | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 17 | TAO NUPL | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 18 | TAO RHODL Ratio | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 19 | TAO Macro Oscillator | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 20 | TAO MVRV Ratio | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 21 | TAO 4-Year Moving Average | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 22 | TAO Composite Cycle Index | 70 | — | ≥ 90 | Watch | |
| 23 | TAO Mayer Multiple | 1.29 | 2.61% | ≥ 2.40 | Hold | |
| 24 | TAO AHR999x Exit | 1.35 | 2.3% | ≥ 4.00 | Hold | |
| 25 | Corporate TAO Cost Basis | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 26 | TAO Trend Indicator | 7 | — | ≥ 7 | Hot | |
| 27 | 3-Month Annualized Return | 315.2% | 31.37% | ≥ 120% | Hot | |
| 28 | TAO Terminal Price | N/A | — | — | N/A | |
| 29 | TAO Golden Ratio Multiplier | 1.21 | 2.32% | ≥ 3.00× | Hold | |
| 30 | TAO Log-Regression Position | 1.35 | 2.3% | ≥ 2.65× | Hold | |
| 31 | TAO MACD Histogram | +2.38% | 0.62% | ≥ +1.5% of price | Hot | |
| 32 | TAO RSI — 14 Day | 67.0 | 3.85% | ≥ 75 | Watch | |
| 33 | TAO Volume Surge | 2.35× | 2.05% | ≥ 2.00× | Hot | |
| 34 | TAO Volume Trend | 2.05× | 16.17% | ≥ 1.60× | Hot |
Methodology
Built for TAO, not relabeled from BTC
Portable market formulas—such as moving averages, RSI and Mayer Multiple—use TAO price inputs directly. Issuance metrics use TAO emissions across subnet owners, validators and miners rather than proof-of-work revenue.
UTXO, ETF, emissions and treasury signals without an authoritative connected feed are marked unavailable and excluded from the composite. Live data refreshes automatically every six hours; this is not investment advice.
Key takeaway for modern cycles: single-metric tops indicators degrade over time as institutional liquidity, spot ETF flows and diminishing cycle returns change market structure. That is why every chart here feeds a composite risk score that weighs technical moving averages alongside valuation and momentum measures, in the spirit of on-chain frameworks such as MVRV Z-Score and Realized Price.
Cycle theory sources
- Bittensor Docs — Emissions and halvings — 1 TAO per block base emission, 21M cap, issuance-threshold halvings, first halving December 2025.
- Grayscale Research — Bittensor on the Eve of the First Halving — Four-year halving framing and the 7,200 → 3,600 TAO per day emission cut.
- Dynamic TAO whitepaper — Subnet alpha tokens priced on AMMs drive emission allocation from February 2025.
- Philip Swift — Pi Cycle Top and Golden Ratio Multiplier — Origin of the 111DMA / 350DMA×2 cross and moving-average multiple bands.
- J. Welles Wilder — New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978) — Definition of the RSI used for the 22-day momentum reading.